Fundvice · Smollan × Unilever · BAGC planning model

BAGC Reach Ladder

Reach, impressions and sales for four account tiers — 100 / 250 / 500 / 1,000 Brand Ambassador accounts with 20 / 50 / 100 / 300 surrogate pages — on Instagram and YouTube Shorts, with the network effects that make each step up the ladder worth more than the last.

Model v1.1 · 14 September 2026 · Instagram + YouTube
12 live weeks + 12-month residual · organic by default
Companions: Assumptions Register (Word) · BAGC_Reach_Model.xlsx

The ladder — why 1,000 accounts is not ten times 100

Impressions over the 12 live weeks at each tier, against the straight-line extrapolation from the 100-account tier. The gap is the network layer: denser networks lift every post, coordinated waves lift the trend, surrogate pages multiply the best clips, and the 1,000-account tier adds five more languages.

Impressions in 12 live weeks, by tierbars = model · ticks = linear from 100
Modelled impressionsLinear extrapolation (100-tier × accounts)
Impressions per account per week, by tiera linear model would be flat
Per-account weekly impressions

Decomposition of the selected tier against the 100-account tier

Each factor is a counterfactual run of the same model with that mechanism switched off, applied in this order; the product of the steps is the modelled multiple.

Reach engine — selected tier, week by week

Weekly impressions by platform. Every reel is published to Instagram first and repackaged for YouTube Shorts. Follower stocks compound each week from non-follower views and in-store QR follows, so later weeks out-perform earlier ones even at constant posting.

Weekly impressions by platform
InstagramYouTube ShortsWave week
Where impressions come fromlive window
BA accounts (reels + stories)Surrogate pages (collab + transformed edits)
Followers built across the networkend of week 12

Three video styles — Life, Learn, Buy

Every account posts a mix of the three lanes. Life clips (a day at the counter, relatable moments) travel furthest; Learn clips (how-to, ingredient, routine) build recall; Buy clips (offer, code, "ask me at the counter") travel least but carry the trackable link. Surrogate pages re-cut the best of each lane in the same proportion.

Impressions by lanelive window, both platforms
LifeLearnBuy
What each lane does for sales₹, live window
Indirect (brand-lift chain)Direct (linked / code, Buy lane only)

Sales — direct and indirect

Direct sales are traceable to a post: a spoken or on-screen BA code redeemed online (q-commerce or brand D2C) or at the counter. Indirect sales come from the brand-lift chain — reach → recall → intent → purchase — that a matched-store sell-out read confirms. The two are kept apart so the pilot's measurement plan can verify each with its own instrument.

Direct — online (linked Buy-lane posts)

Direct — counter code redemptions

Indirect — brand-lift chain (all lanes)

Assumptions register

Every lever in the model, its Base value and the evidence or judgement behind it. The Word companion document sets out each in full, with the formulae and the market practices that support the exponential shape.

Planning model, not a forecast. Reach figures are organic unless the paid layer is switched on; "impressions" are plays/views as reported by each platform, "reach" is de-duplicated within platform by frequency and across platforms by an overlap factor. Programme costs shown for CPM are the Budget Ladder v4 programme costs (12 weeks, excluding incentives, media and performance fee). Prepared by Fundvice for Smollan; confidential.